It is assumed that profound changes will very quickly be caused by the rise of artificial intelligence. This may not have much of an effect on the two-thirds of a billion people who have no access to electricity, or the 1.8 billion whose access is limited. The website Europe2031.ai conceptualises the matter as a race to create, implement and above all own new technology, in which it is hypothesised that Europe will be crushed by the USA and China. Perhaps, but the reasoning behind this controversial scenario is very one-dimensional.
The originators of the scenario would do well to read the short story The Machine Stops, which E.M. Forster wrote in 1909. This work is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. More than a century later, it gets more and more relevant every day.
In 1997 the sociologist Henry Quarantelli wrote, very perceptively, that technology leads a double life: that which its makers intended and that which they didn't intend. His observation was amply borne out by social media, which changed their complexion very substantially from the period of their birth in the 2000s to the present day, when much of what they purvey is toxic and harmful.
The objections to artificial intelligence are well known, especially its horrendous impact upon vulnerable environments as a result of its excessive demand for energy and water and its tendency to command unacceptable proportions of world resources. Yet even if these problems are eventually solved, there remains one that is potentially greater. For whom is AI working? The signs are that it could become a weapon against the common people, their needs and desires.
In the 21st century capitalism is failing to provide for human needs. It fuels wars, perpetuates and increases inequality, wrecks the natural environment, channels human aspirations into unethical ventures and sows discontent and maladjustment. One could go so far as to argue that the biggest problem the world faces are billionaires (and the one trillionaire), whose very existence is absolutely unethical. Oligarchy and the misappropriation of power are very large obstacles to progress.
So will artificial intelligence make Europe poor and the USA and China rich and successful? To argue such a case, as Europe2031 does, is facile in the extreme. To begin with, we do not yet know what the main unanticipated consequences of AI will be, but the bigger the technology, the greater the opportunities to subvert it. Secondly, it is not clear whether AI will solve more problems than it will create. It could be an extremely powerful force for 'dumbing down' populations and making the malleable (see Forster's 1909 story for an exploration of this). Yet if this occurs, there will inevitably be a reaction and we will have to see how strong it is and what form it takes.
I believe the consensus among philosophers is that machines do not think and will never do so. They parrot and they follow their own algorithms. These may be immensely powerful, but there is something in the human spirit that cannot be replicated. Readers with a religious bent are bound to agree with me, yet even atheists can readily accept this statement. I am not arguing that AI is worthless, but its value is very definitely constrained. It may also be constrained, and perhaps heavily so, by its drawbacks.
This brings us back to the question of electricity. 'Black-sky thinking' reminds us that power blackouts are not uncommon and not restricted to countries that have precarious electricity distribution systems. Artificial intelligence works well until the current is switched off: a simple but effective means of curbing its excesses.
In conclusion, if we want to make a scenario of what the future of AI will look like, we need to cast our net wide. There are many reasons why reliance on technology is unwise. Examples of how the 'technofix' has failed are legion. The question then becomes one of working out why the failures occurred, and the answer is seldom, if ever, a purely technical one. Hence, we wait to see what they dark side of AI produces.
The parallels between the current state of the USA and the decline and fall of the Roman Empire are eerily strong. As Mark Twain remarked, history does not repeat itself, but it definitely rhymes. The present story of artificial intelligence is one of excesses, of investments and initiatives that ignore the true state of the world; replicans mundi vanitatis.
